The long search for a conservative candidate to run as an independent has come to an end. Evan Mcmullin is running for president, and potentially will have support from Mitt Romney and the Koch Brothers. However, there are some huge red flags that suggest he is not actually meant to be a viable candidate, or even a spoiler one. In fact, it is quite plausible that he was pushed into the race by the GOP establishment, because they understand that Trump is doomed, and are worried about Gary Johnson. Specifically, they seek to divide the #NeverTrump vote, in order to prevent Johnson from reaching 15% in the polls. This would, bar any changes in the rules, prevent him from being able to be in the presidential debates.
Let's be clear. This man is not a serious candidate. He's missed the registration deadline in over half of the states, with many more coming up. The main state he will contest is reportedly Utah, where Johnson had the best chance of winning and could have easily been the frontrunner in had he received a Romney endorsement (who was leaning towards Johnson but reportedly now supporting Mcmullin). Neither will be able to garner enough votes to win the state, effectively handing it to Trump.
There are many reasons this is problematic for the GOP establishment. For one, the amount of media attention that would be brought to Johnson just from hitting 15% would give a huge amount of attention to a center-right party that could, if it grew enough; end up being a spoiler party that causes the GOP to lose in a lot of close races, whether national, state, or local. Getting into the debates would also mean that Johnson would be virtually guaranteed to get the 5% of the actual vote required for the Libertarian Party to receive public funding and automatic ballot access, along with a ton of media coverage. Meanwhile, many Republicans have been defecting to the Libertarian Party, and others have backed Johnson. Stopping this outflow is going to be a priority for them. Combine the fact that he could very well win Utah, and the Libertarian Party could receive a huge boost from this election that results in a weakened GOP.
In fact, in the long run, the Libertarian Party may very well become a serious influence in politics, should it react to this attention it could receive by moderating and expanding. The polarization of the two main parties combined, with the fact that both are moving towards statism, opens a huge opportunity for a third party to attract voters who are, or will be, alienated as the parties shift. They could push for free marketers, neoliberals, centrists, non-interventionists, amongst other groups. This is why the GOP feels the need to sabotage it.
The GOP establishment knows Trump is almost certainly going to lose, and that Johnson could very well get the 15%. With that in mind, the only rational thing for them to do to protect their party was to take a major risk. It is clear this move will hurt Johnson, but if they are lucky it could also help Trump. Handing Utah to Trump will help his electoral strategy, and although Mcmullin will garner votes from reluctant Trump supporters, it is possible that he will gain more votes from reluctant Hillary supporters. Either way, the third party risk will be substantially mitigated and they may be able to protect downballot Republicans. Keep this all in mind before getting excited about an independent conservative run.
Edit: I was almost certainly wrong about everything. I have no question of McMullin's intentions, and have incredibly strong doubts that the establishment had nothing to do with this run. I shall leave this up anyway, I'm not going to hide when I'm awfully wrong.
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